Lahti vs HJK: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lahtivs
HJKThe model puts HJK at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lahti.
- +The head-to-head record favours HJK (2-0-4).
- −HJK are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lahti have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lahti have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- HJK will be without Ezeh, Nylund, Toivonen.
- HJK is priced at 2.09.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lahti at 33%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts HJK at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward HJK. Lahti is priced at 3.14. The draw is priced at 3.7. HJK is priced at 2.09.
Lahti have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. HJK have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Lahti have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lahti or HJK?
Our model rates HJK as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lahti vs HJK?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Lahti wins, 0 draws, 4 HJK wins.
Match statistics
Lahti
- 3Sans R.
- 4Muller
- 5Dantas
- 8Montiel T.
- 10Koskinen O.
- 11Augusto Ferreira M.
- 18Cassubie
- 19Barbosa
- 27Yapi
- 31Maukonen
- 77Sarr
HJK
- 1Ost J.
- 3Cissokho T.
- 4Ring Al.
- 6Tikkanen V.
- 9Borchers
- 10Lingman
- 14Montagno
- 15Kallinen
- 20Pukki
- 22Moller
- 28Ylitolva
- Ezeh (Missing Player)
- Nylund (Missing Player)
- Toivonen (Missing Player)
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 27:15 | 30 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23:12 | 30 |
| 3 |  AC Oulu | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 4 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21:11 | 24 |
| 5 | HJK | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25:17 | 22 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Turun Palloseura | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:16 | 19 |
| 8 | Lahti | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25:29 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18:22 | 14 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15:32 | 11 |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 14 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6:29 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.