Finland. Veikkausliiga

Turun Palloseura vs AC Oulu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Turun Palloseuravs

AC Oulu

Our predictionAC Oulu to win

Model score: Low · 22/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts AC Oulu at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours AC Oulu (1-2-3).
−AC Oulu are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Turun Palloseura35%Draw27%2 · AC Oulu38%

1 · Turun PalloseuraDraw2 · AC Oulu

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.13+3.7%

1X2Turun Palloseura2.74+0.8%

1X2AC Oulu2.47+0.5%

1X2Draw3.30-1.3%

BTTSYes1.64-3.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Turun PalloseuraDLLDL

AC OuluLLDWL

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%

1-09.8%

0-19.5%

2-18.3%

1-28.0%

0-07.5%

Team strength rating

Turun Palloseura

AC Oulu

Expected goals

1.32Turun Palloseura

1.28AC Oulu

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Turun Palloseura AC Oulu

Key points

Turun Palloseura have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
AC Oulu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Turun Palloseura have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Turun Palloseura will be without Tsirigotis.
AC Oulu will be without Pirinen J., Pitkanen M..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2AC Oulu win2.47Fair

Double chanceAC Oulu or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	6	3
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	6	8	5	2
3	3	4	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Turun Palloseura at 35%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts AC Oulu at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Turun Palloseura is priced at 2.74. The draw is priced at 3.3. AC Oulu is priced at 2.47.

Turun Palloseura have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. AC Oulu have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Turun Palloseura have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. AC Oulu have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Turun Palloseura or AC Oulu?

Our model rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Turun Palloseura vs AC Oulu?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 Turun Palloseura wins, 2 draws, 3 AC Oulu wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.74 Draw 3.30 Away 2.47

Match statistics

Player of the matchKarjalainen R.AC Oulu7.9