Jeju SK vs Daejeon Hana Citizen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Jeju SKvs
Daejeon Hana CitizenThe model puts Daejeon Hana Citizen at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Jeju SK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jeju SK have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen is priced at 2.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Jeju SK at 32%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Daejeon Hana Citizen at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Jeju SK is priced at 2.993. The draw is priced at 3.14. Daejeon Hana Citizen is priced at 2.41.
Jeju SK have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Daejeon Hana Citizen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Jeju SK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Daejeon Hana Citizen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Jeju SK or Daejeon Hana Citizen?
Our model rates Daejeon Hana Citizen as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Jeju SK vs Daejeon Hana Citizen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Jeju SK wins, 1 draws, 2 Daejeon Hana Citizen wins.
Odds movement
League table
South Korea. K League 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Seoul | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 28:12 | 35 |
| 2 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Pohang Steelers | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 18:14 | 28 |
| 4 |  Ulsan Hyundai | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 24:24 | 27 |
| 5 |  Gangwon | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 21:11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Incheon United | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21:18 | 21 |
| 7 |  Anyang | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju SK | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:17 | 19 |
| 9 |  Bucheon 1995 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 14:18 | 19 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19:18 | 17 |
| 11 |  Gimcheon Sangmu | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 12 |  Gwangju | 17 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 8:41 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.