Vasteras SK vs Degerfors: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vasteras SKvs
DegerforsThe model puts Vasteras SK at 48%. The model leans toward Vasteras SK. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Vasteras SK.
- −Vasteras SK are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Degerfors are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Vasteras SK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Degerfors have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vasteras SK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vasteras SK will be without Saidi Ab., Nsabiyumva, Ring Jon., Diallo.
- Degerfors will be without Girmai, Pikkarainen J., Salifu.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vasteras SK at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Degerfors at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Vasteras SK. Vasteras SK is priced at 2.05. The draw is priced at 3.36. Degerfors is priced at 3.54.
Vasteras SK have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Degerfors have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vasteras SK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Degerfors have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vasteras SK or Degerfors?
Our model rates Vasteras SK as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vasteras SK vs Degerfors?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Vasteras SK wins, 1 draws, 3 Degerfors wins.
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31:14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:14 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:13 | 18 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 6 |  GAIS | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 7 |  Mjallby | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Malmo | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 16 |
| 9 |  Brommapojkarna | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 10 | Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 11 |  AIK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:23 | 6 |
| 16 |  Orgryte | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.