Mjallby vs AIK: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mjallbyvs
AIKThe model puts Mjallby at 46%. The model leans toward Mjallby. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours AIK.
- −The head-to-head record favours AIK (1-1-4).
- +AIK are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mjallby have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AIK have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mjallby have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mjallby will be without Stroud E..
- AIK will be without Kouame, Nissen, Redkin, Cisse I., Ellingsen M..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mjallby at 46%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts AIK at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mjallby. Mjallby is priced at 1.95. The draw is priced at 3.7. AIK is priced at 3.515.
Mjallby have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. AIK have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Mjallby have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. AIK have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. AIK are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mjallby or AIK?
Our model rates Mjallby as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mjallby vs AIK?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Mjallby wins, 1 draws, 4 AIK wins.
Match statistics
Mjallby
- 5Iqbal
- 7Gustafsson V.
- 10Kjaer
- 13Wallinder R.
- 14Granath W.
- 15Bang-Kittilsen
- 18Bergstrom
- 22Gustavsson J.
- 27Tidstrand
- 33Miettinen
- 39Leandersson
- Stroud E. (Missing Player)
AIK
- 2Smidesang
- 4Papagiannopoulos
- 5Bergquist
- 8Hove
- 11Anderson de Jesus Santos
- 18Ali
- 21Omondi S. W.
- 29Filling
- 30Joelsson
- 33Csongvai
- 45Ayari
- Kouame (Questionable)
- Nissen (Questionable)
- Redkin (Missing Player)
- Cisse I. (Missing Player)
- Ellingsen M. (Missing Player)
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31:14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:14 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:13 | 18 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 6 |  GAIS | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 7 | Mjallby | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Malmo | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 16 |
| 9 |  Brommapojkarna | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 10 |  Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 11 | AIK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:23 | 6 |
| 16 |  Orgryte | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.