Malmo vs Goteborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Malmovs
GoteborgThe model puts Malmo at 54%. The model leans toward Malmo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Malmo.
- +The head-to-head record favours Malmo (3-2-1).
- −Malmo are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Goteborg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Malmo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Goteborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malmo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Malmo will be without Christiansen And., Jansson Pon..
- Goteborg will be without Ersoy, Mucolli A., Rasheed J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Malmo at 54%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Goteborg at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Malmo. Malmo is priced at 1.86. The draw is priced at 3.82. Goteborg is priced at 3.735.
Malmo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Goteborg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Malmo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Goteborg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Malmo or Goteborg?
Our model rates Malmo as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Malmo vs Goteborg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Malmo wins, 2 draws, 1 Goteborg wins.
Match statistics
Malmo
- 1Olsen R.
- 5Djuric
- 7Rosengren
- 17Larsen Jen.
- 20Botheim
- 23John N. A.
- 24Sjostrand
- 29Haksabanovic
- 37Skogmar
- 40Busuladzic
- 44Palsson
- Christiansen And. (Missing Player)
- Jansson Pon. (Missing Player)
Goteborg
- 3Erlingmark
- 4Yeboah
- 5Bager
- 7Clemmensen
- 11Alioum Moubarak
- 14Heintz T.
- 15Kruse
- 16Ottosson F.
- 22Tolf
- 25Bishesari
- 29Bergmark
- Ersoy (Missing Player)
- Mucolli A. (Missing Player)
- Rasheed J. (Missing Player)
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31:14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:14 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:13 | 18 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 6 |  GAIS | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 7 |  Mjallby | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 8 | Malmo | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 16 |
| 9 |  Brommapojkarna | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 10 |  Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 11 |  AIK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 14 | Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:23 | 6 |
| 16 |  Orgryte | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.