GAIS vs Elfsborg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
GAISvs
ElfsborgThe model puts GAIS at 52%. The model leans toward GAIS. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours GAIS.
- +The head-to-head record favours GAIS (4-0-2).
- −GAIS are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Elfsborg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- GAIS have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elfsborg have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- GAIS have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- GAIS will be without Bawa, Hermansen, Holmen K., Lundgren.
- Elfsborg will be without Frick P., Richtner, Rohden Mar..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts GAIS at 52%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Elfsborg at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward GAIS. GAIS is priced at 1.91. The draw is priced at 3.48. Elfsborg is priced at 3.89.
GAIS have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Elfsborg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
GAIS have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Elfsborg have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, GAIS or Elfsborg?
Our model rates GAIS as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for GAIS vs Elfsborg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 GAIS wins, 0 draws, 2 Elfsborg wins.
Match statistics
GAIS
- 1Krasniqi M.
- 2de Brienne
- 4Agren
- 7Aberg
- 8Milovanovic
- 11Nicklasson
- 12Frej R.
- 16Anderson de Jesus Santos
- 17Thorkelsson
- 20Salter
- 22Cardaklija
- Bawa (Missing Player)
- Hermansen (Missing Player)
- Holmen K. (Missing Player)
- Lundgren (Missing Player)
Elfsborg
- 2Mohammed
- 4Isherwood T.
- 6Wikstrom R.
- 9Zeneli A.
- 10Olsson S.
- 18Magnusson J.
- 19Beck
- 21Ostman
- 23Hult
- 29Camara
- 31Pettersson I.
- Frick P. (Missing Player)
- Richtner (Questionable)
- Rohden Mar. (Missing Player)
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31:14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:14 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:13 | 18 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 6 | GAIS | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 7 |  Mjallby | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Malmo | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 16 |
| 9 |  Brommapojkarna | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 10 |  Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 11 |  AIK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 12 |  Kalmar | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:23 | 6 |
| 16 |  Orgryte | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.