Hammarby vs Kalmar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hammarbyvs
KalmarThe model puts Hammarby at 66%. The model leans toward Hammarby. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Kalmar.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hammarby (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hammarby have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kalmar have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hammarby have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hammarby will be without Sourou Kone.
- Kalmar will be without Stolt.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hammarby at 66%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Kalmar at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Hammarby. Hammarby is priced at 1.39. The draw is priced at 4.95. Kalmar is priced at 6.83.
Hammarby have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hammarby have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Hammarby are on 2 wins in a row. Kalmar have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Kalmar are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hammarby or Kalmar?
Our model rates Hammarby as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hammarby vs Kalmar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Hammarby wins, 1 draws, 0 Kalmar wins.
Match statistics
Hammarby
- 1Hahn W.
- 2Skoglund
- 3Winther F.
- 4Eriksson V.
- 5Tekie T.
- 7Abraham Pa.
- 8Karlsson
- 9Lind V.
- 16Persson
- 20Besara
- 26Madjed
- Sourou Kone (Missing Player)
Kalmar
- 1Brolin S.
- 2Larsson
- 4Jansson Ro.
- 5Hallberg M.
- 11Olusanya A.
- 12Ravik
- 13Rosenqvist
- 17Gustafsson Ca.
- 21Magashy
- 23Gojani
- 24Sagoe Jr
- Stolt (Missing Player)
League table
Sweden. Allsvenskan| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31:14 | 29 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26:14 | 20 |
| 3 |  Hacken | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:13 | 18 |
| 5 |  Djurgardens | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23:15 | 16 |
| 6 |  GAIS | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 7 |  Mjallby | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 16 |
| 8 |  Malmo | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 16 |
| 9 |  Brommapojkarna | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16:17 | 16 |
| 10 |  Vasteras SK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 11 |  AIK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Kalmar | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 14:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Degerfors | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:17 | 10 |
| 14 |  Goteborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:24 | 10 |
| 15 |  Halmstads | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:23 | 6 |
| 16 |  Orgryte | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10:28 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.