Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito vs Libertad Loja: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quitovs
Libertad LojaThe model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 84%. The model leans toward Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Libertad Loja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 1.112.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 20 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 84%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Libertad Loja at 4%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 1.112. The draw is priced at 8.25. Libertad Loja is priced at 20.
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Libertad Loja have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Libertad Loja have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 21% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito or Libertad Loja?
Our model rates Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito vs Libertad Loja?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito wins, 1 draws, 3 Libertad Loja wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 40:19 | 43 |
| 2 |  Barcelona Sporting Club | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20:13 | 29 |
| 3 |  SD Aucas | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20:16 | 29 |
| 4 | Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19:14 | 27 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 18:19 | 27 |
| 6 |  Universidad Catolica Quito | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 7 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 18:18 | 26 |
| 8 |  Tecnico Universitario | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 9 |  Leones Del Norte | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 10 |  Orense Sporting Club | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22:24 | 23 |
| 11 |  Emelec | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 14:17 | 23 |
| 12 |  Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 16:21 | 22 |
| 13 |  Mushuc Runa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 23:27 | 21 |
| 14 | Libertad Loja | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:25 | 17 |
| 15 |  Delfin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 10:18 | 17 |
| 16 |  Manta | 18 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 7:23 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.