Leiknir Reykjavík vs Grotta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leiknir Reykjavíkvs
GrottaThe model puts Leiknir Reykjavík at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leiknir Reykjavík have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Grotta have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leiknir Reykjavík have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leiknir Reykjavík is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leiknir Reykjavík at 41%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Grotta at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Leiknir Reykjavík is priced at 2.2. The draw is priced at 3.7. Grotta is priced at 2.659.
Leiknir Reykjavík have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Grotta have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leiknir Reykjavík have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Grotta have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leiknir Reykjavík or Grotta?
Our model rates Leiknir Reykjavík as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leiknir Reykjavík vs Grotta?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Leiknir Reykjavík wins, 1 draws, 3 Grotta wins.
Odds movement
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ungmennafelagid Afturelding | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 34:18 | 25 |
| 2 |  Fylkir | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 23:17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Vestri | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:20 | 21 |
| 5 | Leiknir Reykjavík | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 6 |  HK Kopavogur | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 19 |
| 7 |  Ungmennafelag Njardvikur | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 8 | Grotta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:25 | 16 |
| 9 |  Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 23:30 | 11 |
| 10 |  Grindavik | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 11 |  Iþrottafelagið Volsungur | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16:27 | 8 |
| 12 |  KF Aegir Thorlakshofn | 13 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 15:32 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.