KF Aegir Thorlakshofn vs HK Kopavogur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
KF Aegir Thorlakshofnvs
HK KopavogurThe model puts HK Kopavogur at 56%. The model leans toward HK Kopavogur. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours HK Kopavogur.
- −The head-to-head record favours KF Aegir Thorlakshofn (5-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HK Kopavogur have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- HK Kopavogur is priced at 1.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts KF Aegir Thorlakshofn at 25%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts HK Kopavogur at 56%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward HK Kopavogur. KF Aegir Thorlakshofn is priced at 3.97. The draw is priced at 4.4. HK Kopavogur is priced at 1.61.
KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. HK Kopavogur have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. HK Kopavogur have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, KF Aegir Thorlakshofn or HK Kopavogur?
Our model rates HK Kopavogur as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for KF Aegir Thorlakshofn vs HK Kopavogur?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 KF Aegir Thorlakshofn wins, 0 draws, 1 HK Kopavogur wins.
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ungmennafelagid Afturelding | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 34:18 | 25 |
| 2 |  Fylkir | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 23:17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Vestri | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:20 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leiknir Reykjavík | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 6 | HK Kopavogur | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 21:20 | 19 |
| 7 |  Ungmennafelag Njardvikur | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 8 |  Grotta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21:25 | 16 |
| 9 |  Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 23:30 | 11 |
| 10 |  Grindavik | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 11 |  Iþrottafelagið Volsungur | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16:27 | 8 |
| 12 | KF Aegir Thorlakshofn | 13 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 15:32 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.