Norway vs England: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Norwayvs
EnglandThe model puts England at 53%. The model leans toward England. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours England.
- −England are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head record favours Norway (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Norway have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Norway have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- England will be without Quansah, Livramento V., Henderson.
- England is priced at 1.876.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Norway at 24%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts England at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward England. Norway is priced at 4.43. The draw is priced at 3.895. England is priced at 1.876.
Norway have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. England have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Norway have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. England are on 3 wins in a row.
Norway average 2 goals per game this season. Norway average 43% possession. England average 3 goals per game this season. England average 51% possession.
The model gives 74% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Norway or England?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Norway vs England?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Norway wins, 1 draws, 1 England wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.