Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Vitebsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arsenal Dzerzhinskvs
VitebskThe model puts Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitebsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk is priced at 2.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 36%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Vitebsk at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk is priced at 2.53. The draw is priced at 3.18. Vitebsk is priced at 2.76.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Vitebsk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vitebsk have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk or Vitebsk?
Our model rates Arsenal Dzerzhinsk as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Vitebsk?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk wins, 3 draws, 2 Vitebsk wins.
Odds movement
League table
Belarus. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Minsk | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 26:12 | 33 |
| 2 |  ML Vitebsk | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30:13 | 31 |
| 3 |  Isloch | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24:10 | 28 |
| 4 |  Gomel | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:13 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dinamo Brest | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:15 | 24 |
| 6 |  Torpedo-BelAZ | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Minsk | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 8 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18:18 | 21 |
| 9 |  Neman Grodno | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 16:15 | 21 |
| 10 | Vitebsk | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13:16 | 17 |
| 11 |  Baranovichi | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15:26 | 16 |
| 12 |  Slavia-Mozyr | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14:22 | 15 |
| 13 |  Dnepr Mogilev | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 12:22 | 11 |
| 14 |  Belshina Bobruisk | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 13:26 | 11 |
| 15 |  BATE Borisov | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9:17 | 9 |
| 16 |  Naftan | 14 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10:31 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.