Irtysh Pavlodar vs Jenis: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Irtysh Pavlodarvs
JenisThe model puts Irtysh Pavlodar at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Jenis.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Irtysh Pavlodar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Jenis have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Irtysh Pavlodar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Irtysh Pavlodar is priced at 2.413.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Irtysh Pavlodar at 38%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Jenis at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Irtysh Pavlodar is priced at 2.413. The draw is priced at 3.275. Jenis is priced at 2.903.
Irtysh Pavlodar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Jenis have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Irtysh Pavlodar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Jenis have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Irtysh Pavlodar or Jenis?
Our model rates Irtysh Pavlodar as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Irtysh Pavlodar vs Jenis?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Irtysh Pavlodar wins, 3 draws, 2 Jenis wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 28:9 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Okzhetpes | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 4 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Astana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 6 |  Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 23 |
| 8 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 9 |  Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21:24 | 18 |
| 10 | Jenis | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 11 |  Kaysar | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 13 |  Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 16:24 | 15 |
| 14 |  Caspiy Aktau | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 15 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11:18 | 13 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14:21 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.