Caspiy Aktau vs Ordabasy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Caspiy Aktauvs
OrdabasyThe model puts Ordabasy at 65%. The model leans toward Ordabasy. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ordabasy.
- −The head-to-head record favours Caspiy Aktau (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Caspiy Aktau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ordabasy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Caspiy Aktau have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ordabasy is priced at 1.432.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Caspiy Aktau at 15%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Ordabasy at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Ordabasy. Caspiy Aktau is priced at 7.47. The draw is priced at 4.315. Ordabasy is priced at 1.432.
Caspiy Aktau have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Ordabasy have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Caspiy Aktau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ordabasy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Caspiy Aktau or Ordabasy?
Our model rates Ordabasy as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Caspiy Aktau vs Ordabasy?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Caspiy Aktau wins, 1 draws, 1 Ordabasy wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 28:9 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Okzhetpes | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 4 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 5 |  Astana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 6 |  Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 23 |
| 8 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 9 |  Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21:24 | 18 |
| 10 |  Jenis | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 11 |  Kaysar | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 13 |  Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 16:24 | 15 |
| 14 | Caspiy Aktau | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 15 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11:18 | 13 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14:21 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.