Astana vs Aktobe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Astanavs
AktobeThe model puts Astana at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Aktobe.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Astana have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aktobe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Astana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Astana is priced at 2.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Astana at 42%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Aktobe at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Astana. Astana is priced at 2.16. The draw is priced at 3.315. Aktobe is priced at 3.335.
Astana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Aktobe have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Astana have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Aktobe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Astana or Aktobe?
Our model rates Astana as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Astana vs Aktobe?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Astana wins, 1 draws, 3 Aktobe wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 28:9 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Okzhetpes | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 4 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 5 | Astana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 6 | Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 23 |
| 8 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 9 |  Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21:24 | 18 |
| 10 |  Jenis | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 11 |  Kaysar | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13:19 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 13 |  Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 16:24 | 15 |
| 14 |  Caspiy Aktau | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 12:20 | 14 |
| 15 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11:18 | 13 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14:21 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.