Leones Del Norte vs Universidad Catolica Quito: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leones Del Nortevs
Universidad Catolica QuitoThe model puts Universidad Catolica Quito at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leones Del Norte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leones Del Norte have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Universidad Catolica Quito is priced at 2.148.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Leones Del Norte at 29%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Universidad Catolica Quito at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Universidad Catolica Quito. Leones Del Norte is priced at 3.3. The draw is priced at 3.32. Universidad Catolica Quito is priced at 2.148.
Leones Del Norte have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Leones Del Norte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Universidad Catolica Quito have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leones Del Norte or Universidad Catolica Quito?
Our model rates Universidad Catolica Quito as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leones Del Norte vs Universidad Catolica Quito?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Leones Del Norte wins, 0 draws, 0 Universidad Catolica Quito wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ecuador. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 36:18 | 40 |
| 2 |  Barcelona Sporting Club | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20:13 | 29 |
| 3 |  SD Aucas | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20:16 | 29 |
| 4 |  Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19:14 | 27 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 18:19 | 27 |
| 6 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 28:17 | 26 |
| 7 |  Tecnico Universitario | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 19:17 | 23 |
| 8 |  Club Social y Deportivo Macara | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 16:18 | 23 |
| 9 |  Emelec | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 14:17 | 23 |
| 10 |  Orense Sporting Club | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22:24 | 22 |
| 11 |  Mushuc Runa | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 22:23 | 21 |
| 12 | Leones Del Norte | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 13 |  Guayaquil City | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 14:20 | 19 |
| 14 |  Delfin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9:16 | 17 |
| 15 |  Libertad Loja | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:25 | 17 |
| 16 |  Manta | 17 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 7:23 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.