Breidablik UBK vs Keflavík: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Breidablik UBKvs
KeflavíkThe model puts Breidablik UBK at 55%. The model leans toward Breidablik UBK. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Keflavík.
- −The head-to-head record favours Keflavík (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Breidablik UBK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Keflavík have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Breidablik UBK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Breidablik UBK is priced at 1.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Breidablik UBK at 55%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Keflavík at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Breidablik UBK. Breidablik UBK is priced at 1.6. The draw is priced at 4.5. Keflavík is priced at 4.41.
Breidablik UBK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Keflavík have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Breidablik UBK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Keflavík have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Breidablik UBK or Keflavík?
Our model rates Breidablik UBK as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Breidablik UBK vs Keflavík?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Breidablik UBK wins, 2 draws, 3 Keflavík wins.
League table
Iceland. Urvalsdeild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vikingur Reykjavik | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 48:9 | 40 |
| 2 |  Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 53:36 | 32 |
| 3 |  Knattspyrnufelagid Fram | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 38:26 | 30 |
| 4 | Breidablik UBK | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 32:25 | 22 |
| 5 |  Valur | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 24:29 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavík | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 7 |  Stjarnan | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 28:31 | 15 |
| 8 |  Íþrottabandalag Vestmannaeyja | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 24:31 | 15 |
| 9 |  IA Akranes | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19:28 | 15 |
| 10 |  Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 22:30 | 13 |
| 11 |  Hafnarfjordur | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 20:31 | 11 |
| 12 |  Tor Akureyri | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 15:41 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.