Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Esporte Clube Juventude vs Vila Nova: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Esporte Clube Juventudevs

Vila Nova

Our predictionEsporte Clube Juventude to win

Model score: Medium · 40/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Esporte Clube Juventude at 50%. The model leans toward Esporte Clube Juventude. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Vila Nova (1-1-4).
−Esporte Clube Juventude are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Esporte Clube Juventude50%Draw28%2 · Vila Nova22%

1 · Esporte Clube JuventudeDraw2 · Vila Nova

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.18+6.3%

1X2Vila Nova4.83+3.1%

1X2Draw3.22-1.4%

1X2Esporte Clube Juventude1.80-1.7%

BTTSNo1.61-6.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Esporte Clube JuventudeDWWWL

Vila NovaWLWLW

Team strength rating

Esporte Clube Juventude

Vila Nova

Most likely scorelines

1-012.5%

1-111.1%

2-010.9%

2-19.7%

0-07.2%

0-16.4%

Expected goals

1.74Esporte Clube Juventude

0.89Vila Nova

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score49%

Match DNA

Esporte Clube Juventude Vila Nova

Key points

Esporte Clube Juventude have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vila Nova have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Esporte Clube Juventude have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Esporte Clube Juventude will be without Alan Kar, Ruschel A., Goiano, Pablo Roberto, Nathan.
Vila Nova will be without Rafael Silva.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Esporte Clube Juventude win1.80Fair (-1.7%)

Double chanceEsporte Clube Juventude or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	3
1	12	11	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	6	3
4	3	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Esporte Clube Juventude at 50%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Vila Nova at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Esporte Clube Juventude. Esporte Clube Juventude is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.22. Vila Nova is priced at 4.835.

Esporte Clube Juventude have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Vila Nova have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Esporte Clube Juventude have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vila Nova have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Esporte Clube Juventude or Vila Nova?

Our model rates Esporte Clube Juventude as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Esporte Clube Juventude vs Vila Nova?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 Esporte Clube Juventude wins, 1 draws, 4 Vila Nova wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchJandersonVila Nova8.7