Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bokeljvs
Arsenal TivatThe model puts Bokelj at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bokelj.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bokelj have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal Tivat have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bokelj have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bokelj is priced at 2.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bokelj at 40%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Arsenal Tivat at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Bokelj is priced at 2.39. The draw is priced at 3.54. Arsenal Tivat is priced at 2.43.
Bokelj have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal Tivat have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bokelj have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal Tivat have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bokelj or Arsenal Tivat?
Our model rates Bokelj as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Bokelj wins, 1 draws, 3 Arsenal Tivat wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.