Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gold Coast Knightsvs
Brisbane CityThe model puts Gold Coast Knights at 56%. The model leans toward Gold Coast Knights. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gold Coast Knights.
- −The head-to-head record favours Brisbane City (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gold Coast Knights have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brisbane City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gold Coast Knights have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gold Coast Knights is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gold Coast Knights at 56%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Brisbane City at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Gold Coast Knights. Gold Coast Knights is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 4.2. Brisbane City is priced at 3.895.
Gold Coast Knights have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Brisbane City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Gold Coast Knights have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Brisbane City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gold Coast Knights or Brisbane City?
Our model rates Gold Coast Knights as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Gold Coast Knights wins, 0 draws, 5 Brisbane City wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Queensland| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Peninsula Power | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 43:20 | 42 |
| 2 |  Queensland Lions | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 48:20 | 38 |
| 3 |  Moreton City Excelsior | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 47:28 | 35 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 40:25 | 32 |
| 5 |  Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 32:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38:39 | 26 |
| 7 |  Wynnum Wolves | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 29:34 | 26 |
| 8 |  Brisbane Olympic | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 31:35 | 20 |
| 9 |  Rochedale Rovers | 18 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 27:45 | 15 |
| 10 |  Brisbane Roar II | 18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 26:43 | 13 |
| 11 |  Magic United TFA | 18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 24:54 | 13 |
| 12 |  Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 19:35 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.