Queensland Lions vs Eastern Suburbs: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Queensland Lionsvs
Eastern SuburbsThe model puts Queensland Lions at 66%. The model leans toward Queensland Lions. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Queensland Lions.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Queensland Lions have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eastern Suburbs have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queensland Lions have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Queensland Lions is priced at 1.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Queensland Lions at 66%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Eastern Suburbs at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Queensland Lions. Queensland Lions is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 4.8. Eastern Suburbs is priced at 5.43.
Queensland Lions have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Eastern Suburbs have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Queensland Lions have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Queensland Lions are on 2 wins in a row. Eastern Suburbs have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Queensland Lions or Eastern Suburbs?
Our model rates Queensland Lions as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Queensland Lions vs Eastern Suburbs?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Queensland Lions wins, 2 draws, 2 Eastern Suburbs wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Queensland| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Peninsula Power | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 43:20 | 42 |
| 2 | Queensland Lions | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 48:20 | 38 |
| 3 |  Moreton City Excelsior | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 47:28 | 35 |
| 4 |  Gold Coast Knights | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 40:25 | 32 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 32:26 | 28 |
| 6 |  Brisbane City | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 38:39 | 26 |
| 7 |  Wynnum Wolves | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 29:34 | 26 |
| 8 |  Brisbane Olympic | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 31:35 | 20 |
| 9 |  Rochedale Rovers | 18 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 27:45 | 15 |
| 10 |  Brisbane Roar II | 18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 26:43 | 13 |
| 11 |  Magic United TFA | 18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 24:54 | 13 |
| 12 |  Gold Coast United | 16 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 19:35 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.