Dandenong Thunder vs Bentleigh Greens: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dandenong Thundervs
Bentleigh GreensThe model puts Bentleigh Greens at 49%. The model leans toward Bentleigh Greens. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Dandenong Thunder (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dandenong Thunder have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bentleigh Greens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dandenong Thunder have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bentleigh Greens is priced at 1.81.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dandenong Thunder at 28%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Bentleigh Greens at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bentleigh Greens. Dandenong Thunder is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 3.82. Bentleigh Greens is priced at 1.81.
Dandenong Thunder have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Bentleigh Greens have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dandenong Thunder have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bentleigh Greens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dandenong Thunder or Bentleigh Greens?
Our model rates Bentleigh Greens as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dandenong Thunder vs Bentleigh Greens?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Dandenong Thunder wins, 2 draws, 1 Bentleigh Greens wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Victorian| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 43:18 | 44 |
| 2 |  Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40:24 | 40 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 53:27 | 34 |
| 4 |  Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 30:16 | 32 |
| 5 |  Heidelberg United | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 31:24 | 31 |
| 6 |  South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 31:32 | 31 |
| 7 |  Melbourne City II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35:20 | 29 |
| 8 |  Caroline Springs George Cross | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 25:26 | 26 |
| 9 |  Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 26:27 | 22 |
| 10 |  Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 24:36 | 22 |
| 11 |  St Albans Dinamo | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 21:34 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 19 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 17:42 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 19 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 20:42 | 12 |
| 14 |  Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 14:42 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.