Melbourne City II vs Heidelberg United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Melbourne City IIvs
Heidelberg UnitedThe model puts Heidelberg United at 56%. The model leans toward Heidelberg United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Heidelberg United.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Melbourne City II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heidelberg United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heidelberg United is priced at 1.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Melbourne City II at 24%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Heidelberg United at 56%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Heidelberg United. Melbourne City II is priced at 3.77. The draw is priced at 4.45. Heidelberg United is priced at 1.635.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Melbourne City II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Heidelberg United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Heidelberg United are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Melbourne City II or Heidelberg United?
Our model rates Heidelberg United as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Melbourne City II vs Heidelberg United?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Melbourne City II wins, 1 draws, 0 Heidelberg United wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Victorian| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 43:18 | 44 |
| 2 |  Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40:24 | 40 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 53:27 | 34 |
| 4 |  Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 30:16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg United | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 31:24 | 31 |
| 6 |  South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 31:32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35:20 | 29 |
| 8 |  Caroline Springs George Cross | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 25:26 | 26 |
| 9 |  Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 26:27 | 22 |
| 10 |  Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 24:36 | 22 |
| 11 |  St Albans Dinamo | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 21:34 | 22 |
| 12 |  Bentleigh Greens | 19 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 17:42 | 16 |
| 13 |  Dandenong Thunder | 19 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 20:42 | 12 |
| 14 |  Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 14:42 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.