Sydney United vs Rockdale Ilinden: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sydney Unitedvs
Rockdale IlindenThe model puts Sydney United at 47%. The model leans toward Sydney United. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sydney United.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sydney United (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sydney United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rockdale Ilinden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sydney United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sydney United is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sydney United at 47%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Rockdale Ilinden at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sydney United is priced at 2.14. The draw is priced at 3.42. Rockdale Ilinden is priced at 2.933.
Sydney United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Rockdale Ilinden have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sydney United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Rockdale Ilinden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sydney United or Rockdale Ilinden?
Our model rates Sydney United as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sydney United vs Rockdale Ilinden?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Sydney United wins, 1 draws, 1 Rockdale Ilinden wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. New South Wales Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marconi Stallions | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 42:14 | 52 |
| 2 |  APIA Leichhardt | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 47:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Sydney United | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33:17 | 45 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 36:31 | 36 |
| 5 |  Sutherland Sharks | 23 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 36:30 | 35 |
| 6 |  Sydney U21 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 32:34 | 34 |
| 7 |  Wollongong Wolves | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 26:29 | 32 |
| 8 |  NWS Spirit | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 27:27 | 31 |
| 9 |  Manly United | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 25:29 | 30 |
| 10 |  Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 42:31 | 29 |
| 11 |  UNSW | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 32:35 | 28 |
| 12 |  SD Raiders | 23 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 30:39 | 26 |
| 13 |  Saint George City | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 22:37 | 25 |
| 14 |  Blacktown City | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 30:39 | 22 |
| 15 |  St. George Saints | 23 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 22:39 | 19 |
| 16 |  Sydney Olympic | 23 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 25:49 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.