Manly United vs Sutherland Sharks: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manly Unitedvs
Sutherland SharksThe model puts Manly United at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Manly United.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Manly United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sutherland Sharks have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manly United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manly United is priced at 2.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Manly United at 41%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Sutherland Sharks at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Manly United is priced at 2.3. The draw is priced at 3.64. Sutherland Sharks is priced at 2.48.
Manly United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Sutherland Sharks have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Manly United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Sutherland Sharks have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manly United or Sutherland Sharks?
Our model rates Manly United as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manly United vs Sutherland Sharks?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Manly United wins, 0 draws, 3 Sutherland Sharks wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. New South Wales Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marconi Stallions | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 42:14 | 52 |
| 2 |  APIA Leichhardt | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 45:26 | 48 |
| 3 |  Sydney United | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33:17 | 45 |
| 4 |  Rockdale Ilinden | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 36:31 | 36 |
| 5 | Sutherland Sharks | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 35:28 | 35 |
| 6 |  Sydney U21 | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 31:32 | 34 |
| 7 |  Wollongong Wolves | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 24:26 | 32 |
| 8 |  Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 42:31 | 29 |
| 9 |  NWS Spirit | 22 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 24:26 | 28 |
| 10 | Manly United | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 23:28 | 27 |
| 11 |  SD Raiders | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 29:36 | 26 |
| 12 |  UNSW | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 30:35 | 25 |
| 13 |  Saint George City | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:35 | 25 |
| 14 |  Blacktown City | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 27:38 | 19 |
| 15 |  St. George Saints | 22 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 21:36 | 19 |
| 16 |  Sydney Olympic | 22 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 22:47 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.