Sorrento vs Fremantle City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sorrentovs
Fremantle CityThe model puts Fremantle City at 52%. The model leans toward Fremantle City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Fremantle City (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sorrento have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fremantle City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sorrento have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fremantle City is priced at 1.77.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sorrento at 24%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Fremantle City at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Fremantle City. Sorrento is priced at 3.87. The draw is priced at 3.6. Fremantle City is priced at 1.77.
Sorrento have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Fremantle City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sorrento have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Fremantle City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sorrento or Fremantle City?
Our model rates Fremantle City as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sorrento vs Fremantle City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Sorrento wins, 2 draws, 3 Fremantle City wins.
League table
Australia. NPL. Western Australia| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayswater City | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 42:23 | 34 |
| 2 |  Perth RedStar | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 27:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  Olympic Kingsway Sports Club | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 36:23 | 33 |
| 4 |  Perth | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 40:31 | 30 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 33:27 | 25 |
| 6 |  Stirling Macedonia | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 32:27 | 23 |
| 7 |  Western Knights | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:30 | 22 |
| 8 |  Dianella White Eagles | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 9 | Sorrento | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 18:29 | 20 |
| 10 |  Armadale | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 31:45 | 15 |
| 11 |  Perth Glory (Youth) | 17 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 28:36 | 13 |
| 12 |  Balcatta | 17 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 24:49 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.