Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union La Caleravs
Coquimbo UnidoThe model puts Coquimbo Unido at 46%. The model leans toward Coquimbo Unido. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido (0-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido is priced at 2.02.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Union La Calera at 26%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Coquimbo Unido at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Coquimbo Unido. Union La Calera is priced at 3.495. The draw is priced at 3.125. Coquimbo Unido is priced at 2.02.
Coquimbo Unido have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Coquimbo Unido have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union La Calera or Coquimbo Unido?
Our model rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Coquimbo Unido?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Union La Calera wins, 1 draws, 5 Coquimbo Unido wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.