Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tanzania Prisonsvs
Mbeya CityThe model puts Tanzania Prisons at 50%. The model leans toward Tanzania Prisons. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Tanzania Prisons.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tanzania Prisons have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mbeya City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tanzania Prisons have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tanzania Prisons is priced at 1.73.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tanzania Prisons at 50%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Mbeya City at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tanzania Prisons. Tanzania Prisons is priced at 1.73. The draw is priced at 3.52. Mbeya City is priced at 4.18.
Tanzania Prisons have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Mbeya City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tanzania Prisons have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Mbeya City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Mbeya City are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tanzania Prisons or Mbeya City?
Our model rates Tanzania Prisons as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Tanzania Prisons wins, 2 draws, 2 Mbeya City wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.