Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Operario Ferroviario vs Novorizontino: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Operario Ferroviariovs

Novorizontino

Our predictionOperario Ferroviario to win

Model score: Low · 26/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Operario Ferroviario at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Operario Ferroviario are dealing with notable absentees.
+Novorizontino are dealing with notable absentees.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Operario Ferroviario38%Draw32%2 · Novorizontino30%

1 · Operario FerroviarioDraw2 · Novorizontino

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.90+3.7%

1X2Operario Ferroviario2.47+0.5%

1X2Novorizontino3.07-0.0%

1X2Draw2.91-0.5%

BTTSNo1.80-3.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Operario FerroviarioWWWLW

NovorizontinoWWWDW

Team strength rating

Operario Ferroviario

Novorizontino

Most likely scorelines

1-112.3%

1-010.8%

2-19.1%

0-18.4%

2-08.0%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.47Operario Ferroviario

1.14Novorizontino

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Operario Ferroviario Novorizontino

Key points

Operario Ferroviario have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Novorizontino have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Operario Ferroviario have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Operario Ferroviario will be without Pereira, Cuenu, Zuluaga, Tavella A..
Novorizontino will be without Lora, Pereira Luc., Prezotti M.A., Bianqui, Silveira R., Bortolotto S., Carlinhos, Juninho.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Operario Ferroviario win2.47Fair

Double chanceOperario Ferroviario or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	5	2
1	11	12	7	3
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	4	3
4	1	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Operario Ferroviario at 38%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Novorizontino at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Operario Ferroviario is priced at 2.47. The draw is priced at 2.91. Novorizontino is priced at 3.07.

Operario Ferroviario have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Novorizontino have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Operario Ferroviario have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Operario Ferroviario are on 3 wins in a row. Novorizontino have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Novorizontino are on 3 wins in a row.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Operario Ferroviario or Novorizontino?

Our model rates Operario Ferroviario as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Operario Ferroviario vs Novorizontino?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Operario Ferroviario wins, 2 draws, 2 Novorizontino wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.47 Draw 2.91 Away 3.07

Match statistics

Player of the matchLuis Felipe OyamaNovorizontino8.5