Dumbarton vs St. Mirren: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dumbartonvs
St. MirrenThe model puts St. Mirren at 83%. St. Mirren have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St. Mirren.
- +The head-to-head record favours St. Mirren (0-0-6).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Mirren are on 2 wins in a row.
- St. Mirren have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Mirren have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Mirren are on 2 wins in a row. St. Mirren have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2. The model gives 24% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dumbarton or St. Mirren?
Our model rates St. Mirren as the most likely outcome at 83% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dumbarton vs St. Mirren?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Dumbarton wins, 0 draws, 6 St. Mirren wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen of the South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Brora Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Kelty Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.