Scotland. League Cup

Spartans vs Arbroath: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Spartansvs

Arbroath

Our predictionArbroath to win

Model score: High · 71/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Arbroath at 56%. The model leans toward Arbroath. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Spartans.

Win probabilities

1 · Spartans22%Draw22%2 · Arbroath56%

1 · SpartansDraw2 · Arbroath

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.38+13.2%

1X2Arbroath1.67+1.1%

1X2Spartans4.11-0.1%

1X2Draw3.90-1.0%

BTTSYes1.50-13.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Spartans

Arbroath

Recent form

SpartansDLDDW

ArbroathWWLDL

Most likely scorelines

0-112.8%

1-111.6%

0-210.5%

1-29.6%

0-07.8%

1-07.0%

Expected goals

0.91Spartans

1.65Arbroath

Over 2.5 goals47%

Both teams to score48%

Match DNA

Spartans Arbroath

Key points

Spartans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Spartans have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Arbroath is priced at 1.67.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Arbroath win1.67Fair (+1.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	13	11	6	2
1	7	12	10	5	2
2	3	5	4	2
3		2	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Spartans at 22%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Arbroath at 56%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Arbroath. Spartans is priced at 4.105. The draw is priced at 3.9. Arbroath is priced at 1.67.

Spartans have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Spartans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Arbroath have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Arbroath are on 2 wins in a row.

The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.