Scotland. League Cup

Stenhousemuir vs Forfar Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Stenhousemuirvs

Forfar Athletic

Our predictionStenhousemuir to win

Model score: High · 73/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Stenhousemuir at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Forfar Athletic (0-4-2).

Win probabilities

1 · Stenhousemuir65%Draw19%2 · Forfar Athletic16%

1 · StenhousemuirDraw2 · Forfar Athletic

Full team comparison →

Recent form

StenhousemuirWDWDL

Forfar AthleticWWLDW

Team strength rating

Stenhousemuir

Forfar Athletic

Most likely scorelines

2-014.5%

1-014.2%

3-09.8%

2-19.1%

1-18.9%

0-07.0%

Expected goals

2.04Stenhousemuir

0.63Forfar Athletic

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score40%

Match DNA

Stenhousemuir Forfar Athletic

Key points

Stenhousemuir have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Forfar Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Forfar Athletic are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Stenhousemuir win1.37Fair (-1.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4	1
1	14	9	3
2	14	9	3
3	10	6	2
4	5	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Forfar Athletic6.47+1.8%

1X2Draw4.65-0.6%

1X2Stenhousemuir1.37-1.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Stenhousemuir at 65%. The model leans toward Stenhousemuir. The market leans toward Stenhousemuir.

Forfar Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Forfar Athletic are on 2 wins in a row.

Stenhousemuir have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals. The model gives 40% for both teams to score.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.