Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Uruguay Montevideovs
Club OrientalThe model puts Club Oriental at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Uruguay Montevideo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Oriental have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Uruguay Montevideo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Oriental is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Uruguay Montevideo at 30%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Club Oriental at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Uruguay Montevideo is priced at 3.015. The draw is priced at 3.08. Club Oriental is priced at 2.25.
Uruguay Montevideo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Oriental have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Uruguay Montevideo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Oriental have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Uruguay Montevideo or Club Oriental?
Our model rates Club Oriental as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Uruguay Montevideo vs Club Oriental?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Uruguay Montevideo wins, 1 draws, 3 Club Oriental wins.
Odds movement
League table
Uruguay. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Atletico Atenas | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 19 |
| 2 |  River Plate Montevideo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 3 |  Cerrito | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  Colon Montevideo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10:9 | 15 |
| 5 |  Tacuarembo | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Centro Atletico Fenix | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  Miramar Misiones | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Club Plaza Colonia de Deportes | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  Huracan Del Paso De La Arena | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 12 |
| 10 | Club Oriental | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:12 | 11 |
| 11 |  Rentistas | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:12 | 11 |
| 12 |  La Luz | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 |  FC Paysandu | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11:15 | 7 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:14 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.