Cerrito vs Miramar Misiones: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cerritovs
Miramar MisionesThe model puts Cerrito at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cerrito have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Miramar Misiones have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cerrito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cerrito is priced at 2.11.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cerrito at 43%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Miramar Misiones at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cerrito. Cerrito is priced at 2.11. The draw is priced at 3.2. Miramar Misiones is priced at 3.165.
Cerrito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Miramar Misiones have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cerrito have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Miramar Misiones have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cerrito or Miramar Misiones?
Our model rates Cerrito as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cerrito vs Miramar Misiones?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerrito wins, 4 draws, 1 Miramar Misiones wins.
League table
Uruguay. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Atletico Atenas | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 19 |
| 2 |  River Plate Montevideo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 3 | Cerrito | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  Colon Montevideo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10:9 | 15 |
| 5 |  Tacuarembo | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Centro Atletico Fenix | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 | Miramar Misiones | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Club Plaza Colonia de Deportes | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  Huracan Del Paso De La Arena | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 12 |
| 10 |  Club Oriental | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:12 | 11 |
| 11 |  Rentistas | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:12 | 11 |
| 12 |  La Luz | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 |  FC Paysandu | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 11:15 | 7 |
| 14 |  Uruguay Montevideo | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:14 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.