Argentino de Merlo vs Argentino de Quilmes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Argentino de Merlovs
Argentino de QuilmesThe model puts Argentino de Merlo at 47%. The model leans toward Argentino de Merlo. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Argentino de Merlo.
- +The head-to-head record favours Argentino de Merlo (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Argentino de Merlo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Argentino de Quilmes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Argentino de Merlo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Argentino de Merlo is priced at 2.13.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Argentino de Merlo at 47%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Argentino de Quilmes at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Argentino de Merlo is priced at 2.13. The draw is priced at 2.8. Argentino de Quilmes is priced at 3.665.
Argentino de Merlo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Argentino de Quilmes have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Argentino de Merlo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Argentino de Quilmes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Argentino de Merlo or Argentino de Quilmes?
Our model rates Argentino de Merlo as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Argentino de Merlo vs Argentino de Quilmes?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Argentino de Merlo wins, 0 draws, 2 Argentino de Quilmes wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 34:15 | 45 |
| 2 |  Club Atletico Talleres Remedios de Escalada | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 26:10 | 45 |
| 3 |  Arsenal de Sarandi | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 33:17 | 44 |
| 4 |  Villa Dalmine | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 28:13 | 43 |
| 5 |  Atletico Camioneros | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 27:15 | 41 |
| 6 |  Sportivo Italiano | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 23:20 | 35 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 25:24 | 34 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 25:27 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Martin de Burzaco | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 23:20 | 31 |
| 10 |  Club Comunicaciones | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 26:25 | 31 |
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 21:21 | 31 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:29 | 31 |
| 13 |  Deportivo Merlo | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 27:35 | 31 |
| 14 |  Dock Sud | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 24:22 | 27 |
| 15 | Argentino de Quilmes | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 24:25 | 27 |
| 16 |  Deportivo Liniers | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 16:23 | 26 |
| 17 |  Defensores Unidos | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 19:24 | 24 |
| 18 |  Club Atletico Brown | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 16:27 | 23 |
| 19 |  UAI Urquiza | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 12:20 | 22 |
| 20 |  CSyD Flandria | 23 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 18:30 | 22 |
| 21 |  Villa San Carlos | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 24:30 | 21 |
| 22 |  Club Atletico Ituzaingo | 23 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 17:41 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.