UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
UAI Urquizavs
Deportivo MerloThe model puts UAI Urquiza at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours UAI Urquiza.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- UAI Urquiza have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Merlo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- UAI Urquiza have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- UAI Urquiza is priced at 2.7.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts UAI Urquiza at 36%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Deportivo Merlo at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. UAI Urquiza is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 2.8. Deportivo Merlo is priced at 2.61.
UAI Urquiza have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Merlo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
UAI Urquiza have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Merlo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, UAI Urquiza or Deportivo Merlo?
Our model rates UAI Urquiza as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Merlo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 UAI Urquiza wins, 4 draws, 1 Deportivo Merlo wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 34:15 | 45 |
| 2 |  Club Atletico Talleres Remedios de Escalada | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 26:10 | 45 |
| 3 |  Arsenal de Sarandi | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 33:17 | 44 |
| 4 |  Villa Dalmine | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 28:13 | 43 |
| 5 |  Atletico Camioneros | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 27:15 | 41 |
| 6 |  Sportivo Italiano | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 23:20 | 35 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 25:24 | 34 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 25:27 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Martin de Burzaco | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 23:20 | 31 |
| 10 |  Club Comunicaciones | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 26:25 | 31 |
| 11 |  Argentino de Merlo | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 21:21 | 31 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:29 | 31 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 27:35 | 31 |
| 14 |  Dock Sud | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 24:22 | 27 |
| 15 |  Argentino de Quilmes | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 24:25 | 27 |
| 16 |  Deportivo Liniers | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 16:23 | 26 |
| 17 |  Defensores Unidos | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 19:24 | 24 |
| 18 |  Club Atletico Brown | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 16:27 | 23 |
| 19 | UAI Urquiza | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 12:20 | 22 |
| 20 |  CSyD Flandria | 23 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 18:30 | 22 |
| 21 |  Villa San Carlos | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 24:30 | 21 |
| 22 |  Club Atletico Ituzaingo | 23 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 17:41 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.