Barra vs Santa Cruz PE: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barravs
Santa Cruz PEThe model puts Barra at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Santa Cruz PE.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Barra have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Cruz PE have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barra have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barra is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barra at 40%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Santa Cruz PE at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Barra is priced at 2.25. The draw is priced at 2.95. Santa Cruz PE is priced at 3.15.
Barra have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barra have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Cruz PE have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Cruz PE are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barra or Santa Cruz PE?
Our model rates Barra as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barra vs Santa Cruz PE?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Barra wins, 1 draws, 0 Santa Cruz PE wins.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brusque | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20:14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Guarani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Associacao Atletica Internacional | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16:14 | 22 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz PE | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13:9 | 21 |
| 5 |  S.E.R. Caxias do Sul | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 6 |  Paysandu | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 7 |  Floresta EC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:14 | 20 |
| 8 |  Botafogo da Paraíba | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 9 |  Maringa Futebol Clube | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 10 |  Ituano | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 11 |  Ferroviaria | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12:11 | 19 |
| 12 |  Ypiranga | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16:17 | 18 |
| 13 |  Amazonas | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 13:18 | 17 |
| 14 |  Volta Redonda | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 10:15 | 17 |
| 15 |  Figueirense | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 16 | Barra | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 17 |  Maranhao Atletico Clube | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9:13 | 14 |
| 18 |  Associacao Olímpica de Itabaiana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 11:17 | 13 |
| 19 |  Confianca | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 8:12 | 11 |
| 20 |  Anápolis | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9:17 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.