Paysandu vs Guarani: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paysanduvs
GuaraniThe model puts Paysandu at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Guarani.
- +The head-to-head record favours Paysandu (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Paysandu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guarani have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paysandu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paysandu is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paysandu at 41%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Guarani at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Paysandu is priced at 2.25. The draw is priced at 3.28. Guarani is priced at 2.839.
Paysandu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Guarani have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paysandu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guarani have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paysandu or Guarani?
Our model rates Paysandu as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paysandu vs Guarani?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Paysandu wins, 1 draws, 1 Guarani wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brusque | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20:14 | 24 |
| 2 | Guarani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23:11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Associacao Atletica Internacional | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16:14 | 22 |
| 4 |  Santa Cruz PE | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13:9 | 21 |
| 5 |  S.E.R. Caxias do Sul | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 6 | Paysandu | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 7 |  Floresta EC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:14 | 20 |
| 8 |  Botafogo da Paraíba | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 9 |  Maringa Futebol Clube | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 10 |  Ituano | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 11 |  Ferroviaria | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12:11 | 19 |
| 12 |  Ypiranga | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16:17 | 18 |
| 13 |  Amazonas | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 13:18 | 17 |
| 14 |  Volta Redonda | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 10:15 | 17 |
| 15 |  Figueirense | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 16 |  Barra | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 17 |  Maranhao Atletico Clube | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9:13 | 14 |
| 18 |  Associacao Olímpica de Itabaiana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 11:17 | 13 |
| 19 |  Confianca | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 8:12 | 11 |
| 20 |  Anápolis | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9:17 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.