Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tuggeranong Unitedvs
Belconnen UnitedThe model puts Tuggeranong United at 55%. The model leans toward Tuggeranong United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tuggeranong United.
- +The head-to-head record favours Tuggeranong United (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tuggeranong United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belconnen United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tuggeranong United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tuggeranong United is priced at 1.74.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tuggeranong United at 55%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Belconnen United at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tuggeranong United. Tuggeranong United is priced at 1.74. The draw is priced at 4.15. Belconnen United is priced at 3.505.
Tuggeranong United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Belconnen United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tuggeranong United have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Tuggeranong United are on 5 wins in a row. Belconnen United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belconnen United are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tuggeranong United or Belconnen United?
Our model rates Tuggeranong United as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Tuggeranong United wins, 2 draws, 1 Belconnen United wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. ACT National Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaro Panthers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 53:22 | 36 |
| 2 |  Canberra Croatia | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 41:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Tigers Canberra | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 41:18 | 31 |
| 4 |  Canberra Juventus | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 30:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Tuggeranong United | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 33:29 | 27 |
| 6 |  Queanbeyan City | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 28:19 | 24 |
| 7 |  O'Connor Knights | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15:28 | 15 |
| 8 |  Canberra Olympic | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 30:40 | 13 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 23:33 | 8 |
| 10 |  Brindabella Blues | 13 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7:42 | 6 |
| 11 |  Canberra White Eagles | 14 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 10:43 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.