Keilor Park vs Malvern City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Keilor Parkvs
Malvern CityThe model puts Malvern City at 48%. The model leans toward Malvern City. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Keilor Park.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Keilor Park have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malvern City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Keilor Park have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Malvern City is priced at 1.78.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Keilor Park at 29%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Malvern City at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Malvern City. Keilor Park is priced at 3.645. The draw is priced at 3.76. Malvern City is priced at 1.78.
Keilor Park have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Keilor Park have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Keilor Park are on 2 wins in a row. Malvern City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Keilor Park or Malvern City?
Our model rates Malvern City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Keilor Park vs Malvern City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Keilor Park wins, 0 draws, 0 Malvern City wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. Victoria Premier League 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malvern City | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 42:22 | 40 |
| 2 |  Goulburn Valley Suns | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 42:25 | 39 |
| 3 |  Essendon Royals | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 49:30 | 37 |
| 4 |  Bayside Argonauts | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 37:28 | 31 |
| 5 |  Box Hill United | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 29:24 | 29 |
| 6 | Keilor Park | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 25:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Whittlesea United | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 31:23 | 27 |
| 8 |  Eastern Lions | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30:26 | 23 |
| 9 |  Springvale White Eagles | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 24:35 | 23 |
| 10 |  Nunawading City | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 18:29 | 22 |
| 11 |  Werribee City | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 26:34 | 20 |
| 12 |  Kingston City | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 19:40 | 20 |
| 13 |  Altona City | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 17:27 | 16 |
| 14 |  Moreland City | 17 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 20:40 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.