Miami vs Indy Eleven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Miamivs
Indy ElevenThe model puts Indy Eleven at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Indy Eleven.
- −The head-to-head record favours Miami (6-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Miami have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Indy Eleven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Miami have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Indy Eleven is priced at 2.375.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Miami at 35%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Indy Eleven at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Miami is priced at 2.61. The draw is priced at 3.26. Indy Eleven is priced at 2.375.
Miami have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Miami have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Indy Eleven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Miami or Indy Eleven?
Our model rates Indy Eleven as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Miami vs Indy Eleven?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Miami wins, 0 draws, 0 Indy Eleven wins.
League table
USA. USL| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:12 | 31 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30:21 | 26 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25:22 | 24 |
| 5 | Indy Eleven | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 15:15 | 20 |
| 7 |  Hartford Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12:13 | 19 |
| 8 | Miami | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18:24 | 18 |
| 9 |  Rhode Island | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23:18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brooklyn FC | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 12 |  Loudoun United | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17:28 | 11 |
| 13 |  Sporting Jacksonville | 15 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 19:41 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.