Redlands United vs Capalaba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Redlands Unitedvs
CapalabaThe model puts Redlands United at 71%. The model leans toward Redlands United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Redlands United (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Redlands United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Capalaba have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Redlands United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Redlands United is priced at 1.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Redlands United at 71%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Capalaba at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Redlands United. Redlands United is priced at 1.29. The draw is priced at 5.5. Capalaba is priced at 6.9.
Redlands United have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Capalaba have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Redlands United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Capalaba have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 66% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Redlands United or Capalaba?
Our model rates Redlands United as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Redlands United vs Capalaba?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Redlands United wins, 1 draws, 1 Capalaba wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. Queensland Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Broadbeach United | 17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 46:15 | 45 |
| 2 |  Brisbane Strikers | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 42:14 | 42 |
| 3 |  Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 36:22 | 29 |
| 4 |  Ipswich FC | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 27:24 | 28 |
| 5 |  Caboolture | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 34:30 | 26 |
| 6 |  Robina City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 28:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 34:31 | 24 |
| 8 |  Holland Park Hawks | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Logan Lightning | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 30:33 | 20 |
| 10 |  North Star | 18 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 16:37 | 12 |
| 11 |  Sent-George Willawong | 17 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 10:39 | 10 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 17 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 16:50 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.