Logan Lightning vs Ipswich FC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Logan Lightningvs
Ipswich FCThe model puts Logan Lightning at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Logan Lightning.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Logan Lightning have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ipswich FC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Logan Lightning have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Logan Lightning is priced at 2.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Logan Lightning at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Ipswich FC at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Logan Lightning is priced at 2.39. The draw is priced at 3.44. Ipswich FC is priced at 2.48.
Logan Lightning have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Ipswich FC have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Logan Lightning have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ipswich FC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Logan Lightning or Ipswich FC?
Our model rates Logan Lightning as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Logan Lightning vs Ipswich FC?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Logan Lightning wins, 1 draws, 2 Ipswich FC wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. Queensland Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Broadbeach United | 17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 46:15 | 45 |
| 2 |  Brisbane Strikers | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 42:14 | 42 |
| 3 |  Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 36:22 | 29 |
| 4 | Ipswich FC | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 27:24 | 28 |
| 5 |  Caboolture | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 34:30 | 26 |
| 6 |  Robina City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 28:20 | 25 |
| 7 |  Redlands United | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 34:31 | 24 |
| 8 |  Holland Park Hawks | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:33 | 24 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 30:33 | 20 |
| 10 |  North Star | 18 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 16:37 | 12 |
| 11 |  Sent-George Willawong | 17 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 10:39 | 10 |
| 12 |  Capalaba | 17 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 16:50 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.