Subiaco vs Murdoch University Melville: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Subiacovs
Murdoch University MelvilleThe model puts Murdoch University Melville at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Murdoch University Melville (1-2-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Subiaco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Murdoch University Melville have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Subiaco have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Murdoch University Melville is priced at 2.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Subiaco at 36%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Murdoch University Melville at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Subiaco is priced at 2.48. The draw is priced at 3.44. Murdoch University Melville is priced at 2.39.
Subiaco have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Murdoch University Melville have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Subiaco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Murdoch University Melville have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Subiaco or Murdoch University Melville?
Our model rates Murdoch University Melville as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Subiaco vs Murdoch University Melville?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Subiaco wins, 2 draws, 2 Murdoch University Melville wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. West Australia. Division 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UWA Nedlands | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37:17 | 35 |
| 2 |  Floreat Athena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34:16 | 33 |
| 3 |  Joondalup City | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:21 | 28 |
| 4 |  Mandurah City | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36:27 | 26 |
| 5 |  Inglewood United | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 13:15 | 24 |
| 6 |  Kingsley Westside | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 24:22 | 22 |
| 7 |  Cockburn City | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 28:31 | 19 |
| 8 |  Quinns | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 19:30 | 18 |
| 9 | Murdoch University Melville | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 25:30 | 15 |
| 10 |  Gwelup Croatia | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 21:30 | 15 |
| 11 |  Curtin University | 15 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 11:23 | 9 |
| 12 | Subiaco | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 25:38 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.