Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Western Mass Pioneersvs
Vermont GreenThe model puts Vermont Green at 59%. The model leans toward Vermont Green. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Vermont Green.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Western Mass Pioneers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vermont Green have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Western Mass Pioneers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vermont Green is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Western Mass Pioneers at 20%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Vermont Green at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Vermont Green. Western Mass Pioneers is priced at 4.605. The draw is priced at 4.35. Vermont Green is priced at 1.53.
Western Mass Pioneers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Vermont Green have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Western Mass Pioneers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vermont Green have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Vermont Green are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Western Mass Pioneers or Vermont Green?
Our model rates Vermont Green as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Western Mass Pioneers vs Vermont Green?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Western Mass Pioneers wins, 2 draws, 2 Vermont Green wins.
League table
USA. USL League Two| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 60:10 | 37 |
| 2 |  New England | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 32:21 | 36 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25:16 | 27 |
| 4 |  Black Rock | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 5 |  Albany Rush | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21:33 | 19 |
| 6 |  Seacoast United Phantoms | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25:28 | 14 |
| 7 |  Connecticut Rush | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 19:26 | 14 |
| 8 |  Boston Bolts | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17:26 | 12 |
| 9 |  AC Connecticut | 13 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 17:29 | 6 |
| 10 |  Boston City | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 17:49 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.