Maitland vs Adamstown Rosebud: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maitlandvs
Adamstown RosebudThe model puts Maitland at 53%. The model leans toward Maitland. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Maitland.
- −The head-to-head record favours Adamstown Rosebud (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Maitland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Adamstown Rosebud have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maitland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Maitland is priced at 1.73.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Maitland at 53%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Adamstown Rosebud at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Maitland. Maitland is priced at 1.73. The draw is priced at 4. Adamstown Rosebud is priced at 3.66.
Maitland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Adamstown Rosebud have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Maitland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Adamstown Rosebud have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Maitland or Adamstown Rosebud?
Our model rates Maitland as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Maitland vs Adamstown Rosebud?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Maitland wins, 1 draws, 4 Adamstown Rosebud wins.
League table
Australia. NPL Northern NSW| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Broadmeadow Magic | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 47:21 | 37 |
| 2 |  Belmont Swansea United | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 40:30 | 32 |
| 3 |  Edgeworth Eagles | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 34:29 | 29 |
| 4 |  Weston Workers Bears | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 31:27 | 27 |
| 5 | Maitland | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 30:27 | 27 |
| 6 |  Cooks Hill United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 32:31 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lambton Jaffas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 33:26 | 22 |
| 8 |  Newcastle Olympic Warriors | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 32:30 | 18 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebud | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 24:33 | 17 |
| 10 |  Valentine Phoenix | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 15:34 | 16 |
| 11 |  Kahibah | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 24:38 | 14 |
| 12 |  Charlestown Azzurri | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 24:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.