Sport Boys vs Comerciantes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sport Boysvs
ComerciantesThe model puts Sport Boys at 55%. The model leans toward Sport Boys. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Comerciantes have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Sport Boys is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 22 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sport Boys at 55%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Comerciantes at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sport Boys. Sport Boys is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 3.44. Comerciantes is priced at 4.89.
Comerciantes have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 23% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sport Boys or Comerciantes?
Our model rates Sport Boys as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sport Boys vs Comerciantes?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.