Alianza Atletico Sullana vs Molinos El Pirata: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alianza Atletico Sullanavs
Molinos El PirataThe model puts Alianza Atletico Sullana at 62%. The model leans toward Alianza Atletico Sullana. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Molinos El Pirata.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alianza Atletico Sullana have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Molinos El Pirata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico Sullana is priced at 1.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alianza Atletico Sullana at 62%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Molinos El Pirata at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Alianza Atletico Sullana. Alianza Atletico Sullana is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 4.1. Molinos El Pirata is priced at 6.73.
Molinos El Pirata have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Alianza Atletico Sullana have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Molinos El Pirata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alianza Atletico Sullana or Molinos El Pirata?
Our model rates Alianza Atletico Sullana as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alianza Atletico Sullana vs Molinos El Pirata?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Alianza Atletico Sullana wins, 0 draws, 1 Molinos El Pirata wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.