Independiente FBC vs Tacuary: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente FBCvs
TacuaryThe model puts Independiente FBC at 48%. The model leans toward Independiente FBC. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Tacuary.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Independiente FBC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tacuary have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente FBC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente FBC is priced at 1.82.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente FBC at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Tacuary at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Independiente FBC. Independiente FBC is priced at 1.82. The draw is priced at 3.32. Tacuary is priced at 3.98.
Independiente FBC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tacuary have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Independiente FBC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tacuary have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente FBC or Tacuary?
Our model rates Independiente FBC as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente FBC vs Tacuary?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Independiente FBC wins, 1 draws, 2 Tacuary wins.
Odds movement
League table
Paraguay. Division Intermedia| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  12 De Junio Villa Hayes | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 21:11 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benjamin Aceval | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24:13 | 28 |
| 3 |  General Caballero JLM | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 30:20 | 27 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Santaní | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 18:11 | 24 |
| 5 |  Sol de America | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:12 | 22 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Capiatá | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20:15 | 21 |
| 7 |  Guairena | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16:17 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente FBC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 9 |  Atletico Tembetary | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 10 |  Resistencia SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16:18 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sportivo Carapegua | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:26 | 16 |
| 12 |  Club Fernando de la Mora | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 15:22 | 15 |
| 13 | Tacuary | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17:21 | 12 |
| 14 |  Paraguari Atletico | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 15 |  Encarnacion | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  3 de Noviembre | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12:24 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.